2+ hour, 29+ min ago  (20+ words) Authors: Joshua Engels*, Callum Mc Dougall*, Bilal Chughtai*, Janos Kramar, Senthoran Rajamanoharan, Cindy Wu, Arthur Conmy, Asic Q Chen, Jean Tarbour...

1+ hour, 33+ min ago  (877+ words) I have been fairly certain that conversion of the sub-prime mortgages in the 2008 crisis to indexed mortgages for their remaining balances would have largely made them viable. Is this accurate? Yes, your assessment is analytically sound. Converting the remaining balances…...

2+ hour, 7+ min ago  (411+ words) A classic trope of hard sci-fi as well as more serious futurism is using self-replicating nanoassemblers to convert planets of the Solar System to computronium, or some other kind of a Dyson swarm. This is almost the default way to…...

2+ hour, 29+ min ago  (20+ words) Work also done with Cindy Wu, Asic Q Chen, Jean Tarbouriech, Min Ma, Brendan O'Donoghue, Jo'o Gabriel Lopes de Oliveira. "...

3+ hour, 40+ min ago  (1562+ words) Tldr: Most strategic writing on AI governance on Less Wrong describes the outsider game, which is most often visible: press, statements, open letters. Here I want to describe the other, invisible half: the insider work within ministerial cabinets and international…...

10+ hour, 31+ min ago  (232+ words) I recently made a dumb (in retrospect) mistake that set me back a lot. Feeling upset and regretful, I spoke to an older family member who reassured me, "yeah, unfortunately there's no way around it; we have to experience these…...

23+ hour, 42+ min ago  (304+ words) The implication of this is that it is very hard to have one concrete AI risk argument I can read and respond to. It is difficult to form opinions on AI safety when most experts are in great disagreement about…...

1+ day, 12+ min ago  (1088+ words) In a recent podcast episode published July 20, 2025, Anthropic co-founder Ben Mann is asked (at 48: 43) "What are the odds that we align AI correctly and actually solve this problem?" In his answer, Ben references the following part of Anthropic's March 8, 2023 blog…...

23+ hour, 50+ min ago  (1067+ words) In outline, the moral skeptic's challenge goes: To respond, one must either refute the skeptical hypothesis or identify an extra-moral reason to accept morality. Without a response, one's acceptance of morality is unjustified. This position threatens to be reflectively destabilizing…...

1+ day, 2+ hour ago  (872+ words) I spent the last two days doing a deep dive in forecasting outcomes of the US forcing Anthropic to take down Claude Fable. I did this for two reasons...